HomeMy WebLinkAboutTerra Nova Planning & Research Analysis _ , ,
� ►- � TERRA NOVA PLANNING & RESEARCH, INC.
July 25, 2013
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Ms. Lauri Aylaian � �n�
Director of Community Development � :��r"'s
City of Palm Desert o -"=�rn
73-510 Fred Waring Drive .� ��7 v�-,t
Palm Desert, CA 92260 � -�a .v'�.
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RE: Review of City of Cathedral City Fiscal Impact Analysis for the Thousand Palms ��
community
Dear Lauri:
We have completed our review of the "Draft Report Eiscal Analysis and Plan of Services
for the City of Cathedral City Sphere of Influence within the Unincorporated Community
of Thousand Palms," (Cathedral City Study) prepared by Ralph Andersen & Associates
in March of this year. Our purpose was to determine why the �ndings of the Cathedra(
City Study varied significantly from the findings of the Fiscal Impact Analysis that Terra
Nova prepared for the City of Palm Desert in 2012 (Palm Desert Study).
Summary Findings
This letter report details the findings of our analysis and comparison of the Cathedra( City
and Palm Desert studies. The following are the most significant points:
� The Cathedral City Study analyzed an area of 9700 acres while the Palm Desert
Study analyzed 348 acres in Thousand Palms
� The Cathedral City Study over-estimates sales tax revenue immediately upon
annexation by at least $600,000
� [f sales taY had been calruluted correctly, the tirst year shu�-tlall for Catl�ledral City
would he at least$820,000
� Cathedral City charges an extra 1% in sales tax, Palm Desert does not
� Catheclral City receiv�s Utility "I�ax revenue, but Palm Dese��t does not
� The Cathedral City Study assumes 1,366 new hotel moms, generating 12%
transient occupancy tax, versus 500 hotel roorns generating 9% TOT in the Palm
Desert Study
� Future costs are estimated hased on Cathedral City's current budget and level ofi
service, which is much lower than Palm Deserf s
42635 MELANIE PLACE, SUITE 101, PALM DESERT, CA 92211 760-341-4800
Ms.Lauri Aylaian
July 25,2013 �
Page 2 of 6
Detailed Analysis
The discussion below first addresses short-term analysis (immediately t►pon annexation),
and then considers the long-term (build out) analysis in more detaii.
Short-'1'erm Analysis
The Short-Term Analysis in the Cathedral City Study focuses on the first year after
annexation — showing the City what to expect immediately following their acquiring the
territory. lt assumes only current conditions, and no new development. The following
issues were identified in the Cathedral City Study. Where appropriate, comparisons to the
Paim Desert Study are made.
l. The Cathedral City Study encompassed an area of 9,700 acres, including those
portions of Thousand Palms that are developed with residentia(, commercial and
industrial projects. By comparison, the Palm Desert Study encompassed 348.4 acres
of that area, all of which is either vacant, or sparsely developed (with the exception of
Xavier Prep School and the Classic Club). The ba(ance of the lands in the Palm
Desert Study are lands in Palm Desert's Sphere of Intluence which were not part of
the Cathedral City Study, and that have completely different characteristics from
Thousand Palms.
2. The Cathedral City Study was able to generate per capita revenues and costs because
of the development that currently exists in Thousand Palms. In the Palm Desert
Study, first year assumptions were for no significant revenues other than property tax
for the 348.4 acres, because the lands are generally vacant and unpopulated, and
would generate neither costs nor revenues.
3. Property transfer tax was calculated on a per capita basis in the Cathedral City study,
and not on estimated resale rates in Thousand Palms. In this case, this is important for
two reasons: the value of property in Thousand Palms is likely lower than Cathedral
City's, especially because of the very high percentage of manufactured housing; and
the population of Thousand Palms is older, and less likely to move than the
population of Cathedral City. Since Property Transfer Tax is entirely based on
resales, it is likely that the estimated revenues in this category are overstated.
4. The Cathearal City Study asswnes that the population of T'housand Palms at
annexation (7,715 persons) will add to Cathedrai City's sales tax revenues. The Study
estimates additional revenues of$=�98,477 fiur sales tax, and $297,346 in Transaction
ai�d (Jse 'I'ax (a 1% increase tu dle Catheclral City sales tax rate that was approved hy
the voters three years a�,ro ana sunsets in 201�). The estimate is bused on existin�
sales tax in Cathedral City divided by existinb Cathedral City population, yieldin� a
per capita sales tax gcneration rate. This sales ta� generation rate was then appliec! to
the 7,71� people of Thousand Palms, a��d resulted in the $795,823 in estimated
revenue shown in the study (representing 20% of the total revenue in the tirst year of
annexation).
. Ms. Lauri Aylaian
` July 25,2013
Page 3 of 6
The methodology and resulting revenues are flawed. The existing population in
Thousand Palms will not change its shopping patterns when they are anneYed.
Because therc are limited shopping opportunities in Thousand Palms, the e�cisting
population now shops in other communities, including Cathedral City, but also Palm
Desert and Rancho Mirage. Cathedral City already receives sales tax from Thousand
Palms residents, and this will not signiticantly increase because of annexation.
The proper way to calculate sales tax generation in this case would have been to
estimate the current sales of Thousand Palms businesses subject to sales tax, since
that sales tax currently is distributed to the County. Therefore, because of the limited
sales tax generating businesses in Thousand Palms currently, we believe the revenues
are overstated by as much as $600,000. As a percentage of the total shown in the
Cathedral City study, total revenues are likely to be 15% lower than estimated.
Finally, Palm Desert does not have a Transaction and Use Tax, so no such additional
revenue was calculated in the Palm Desert Study. It is also important to note that
because the 348.4 acres of Thousand Palms included in the Palm Desert Study is
generally vacant, and does.not generate retail sales, none were shown in the first years
of the analysis.
5. Several revenue sources were included in the Cathedral City Study that are not
included in the Palm Desert Study:
a. Utility Tax: Cathedral City has one, Palm Desert does not. In the Cathedral City
Study, this accounts for 11%of total revenues.
b. Business license fees, fines and forfeitures, and charges for services, which are all
small amounts in the Cathedral City study, and which are similarly insignificant
in Palm Desert.
c. Franchise fees are included in the Cathedral City Study, but not in the Palm
Desert Study. We are adding them to the update currently under way.
6. Under costs, the Cathedral City Study based costs on current levels of service
(budget) in Cathedral City. As has been presented in the newspaper and other media
outlets in the (ast few years, Cathedral City has made significant cuts in its budgets
because of falling revenues. As a result, the levels of service provided by Cathedral
Citv, when compared to those of Palm Desert, are much lower, and therefore less
expensive on a per capita basis. For example, the cost of providing police services in
the Catlledral City study is equivalent to $262 per capita, while the cost is $339 per
capita in Palm Desert. All other costs are similarly lower in Cathedral City than they
are in Palm Desert.
7. The Cathedral City Study did not assign costs for any "aclministrative" services at
City Hall, with the exception of $8,�00 for City Clerk e�penditures associated with
elections. It is assumed that all �C�CIIt10f11I work fur the Planning, Building and
Engineering departments will be otlset by application fiees, which is unlikely to be the
case.
Ms. Lauri Aylaian �
July 25.2013 �
Page 4 of 6
8. Finally, the Cathedral City Study assumes that the revenue collected from gas tax and
Measure A will be sufficient to cover maintenance of roads in the anneYation area.
Given the age and condition of roads in Thousand Palms, this is unlikely to be
sufficient for anything beyond slurry seal.
Long-Term Analysis
The Long-Term Analysis in the Cathedral City Study assumes a 25 to 30 year build out.
The analysis does not detail how the conclusions were reached, but we have attempted to
back into the calculations with the assumptions provided.
9. The property tax revenue calculation for the build out of Thousand Palms is
calculated on a per capita basis in the long term analysis. Given that the build out
projection includes 10,090 dwelling units, 17,036,020 square feet of industrial
development and 3,435,163 square feet of commercial retail development, the
calculation on a per capita basis is unlikely to be accurate. Property tax should have
been calculated based on existing valuation for each type of land use (residential,
industrial and commercial). This is particularly important because the value of
residential development is considerably higher than the value of industrial
development.
10. The Cathedral City Study assigns 400,000 square feet of retail to Specific Plan 343
(Berger Foundation), which is consistent with the square footage of retail assigned in
the Palm Desert Study for this area. The sales tax revenue is consistent between the
two studies. However, the Cathedral City Study assumes an additional 3 million
square feet of retail commercial in other parts of Thousand Palms, thereby inereasing
the sales ta�c projection considerably. When compared to the vacant commercial lands
in the Palm Desert Study, the Cathedral City Study has three times the square footage,
generating three times more sa(es tax revenue.
11. The Cathedral City Study assumes the construction of a 350 room hotel within SP
343, consistent with the Palm Desert Study, and 2 t 6 time share units (32 more than
the Palm Desert Study). In addition, the Cathedra( City Study assumes the
construction of six additional hotels: a 100 room hotel and a 300 room hotel at the
Bob Hope interchange; and four more hotels at future Portola and DaVall
interchanges. No infc�rmation on the size of these last four hotels is provided, and no
inl'ormation on the room rate or occupancy level of any of the hotels is disclosed. The
Cathedral City Study assumes build out TOT revenues of $4.5 million annua(ly.
Ras�d on this figure, it appears that the Cathedral City Study assumed that 1,366 new
hotel ro��ms would benerate $1 1�4 per ni��ht room rates (assuming a 65°% occupai�cy).
T'he Palm Desert Study assumed a total of 500 additional hotel raoms, and 18=�
timeshare units. Occupancy rates are consistent between the two stuciies.
It is important to note that there are hvo major ditferences in the potential TOT
revcnues between Cathedral City and Palm Uesert:
� Ms. Lauri Aylaian
� .luly?5,3013
Page 5 of 6
� First, Cathedral City collects 12% TOT, where Palm Desert collects 9%. The 3%
difference results in signiticantly higher TOT revenue for Cathedral City at build
out. The Cathedral City Study estimates that build out �vill generate $4.5 million
in revenue to the City (includin; time share units). The same room revenue in
Palm Desert would generate $3.4 million in TO"I�.
� Second, the Cathedra( City Study calculates TOT for timeshare units. In Palm
Desert, time share revenues are based on a combination of TOT and a flat rate per
unit per year.
12. Cathedral City and Palm Desert both have a population of about 50,000 residents.
Cathedral City's annual Genera( Fund Expendit�ires are $31 million. Palm Desert's
General Fund Expenditures are $45 million. Palm Desert's level of service is much
higher than Cathedral City's.
The costs estimated in the Cathedral City Study are based on Cathedral City's current
budget. On that basis, the Cathedral City Study estimates that the b�ild out population
of 31,457 people would generate general government costs of$2,716,000, or $86.34
per capita; police costs of $8,731,286, or $277.56 per capita; and tire costs of
$3,986,400, or $126.72 per capita. The general government costs are limited to an
increase of 8 city employees in administration and community development, animal
control costs and the costs of elections. Roadway maintenance is allocated a total of
$1,460,306, based entirely on gas tax and Measure A revenue, with no analysis of
whether these revenues will be sufficient to cover maintenance costs.
By comparison, the Palm Desert Study estimated general government costs at $282
per capita, which included not only administration, but also parks maintenance, public
building and landscaping maintenance, and other costs. The per capita cost for police
protection was $339, and the cost for fire and ambulance services was $2,903,703 for
an area of 3,000 acres, or one third of the area of the Cathedral City Study. The costs
associated with both general government and police service were considerably higher
in the Palm Desert Study. Given the level of service provided in Palm Desert when
compared to Cathedral City, the differences are understandable. However, the
Cathedral City Study excludes important items, including parks maintenance and the
maintenance of public parkways and buildings, which are important components of
municipal o�er�ations.
Finally, the Palm Desert Study estimated roadway maintenance based on road miles,
at an annual cost of $7�6,y�h for �in �rea oF 3,��0 acres. The C��thedral City Stu�iv
estimate tur 9,7O0 lcres was �1,4G0,306. A<�aii�, the leve( of service provided by Palm
Uesert results in a much hi�her erpenditure.
Conclusion
Berause of the differences in �['housand Palms acrea�e considered in the two studies, it is
difticult to complrte an `apples to apples' cumparisan. [lowever, if acrea�e is set asicle,
two primary difPerences have been icientit7ed: the level of service provided in Palm
Ms.Lauri Aylaian �
July 25,2013 b
Page G of 6
Desert is much higher and more costly than that provided in Cathedral City; and the
Cathedral City Study maYimizes revenues while minimizing costs.
Even at the lower level of service provided by Cathedral City, it is unlikely that a 60%
increase in population (at build out), will be adequately served if general government
costs increase by less than 1%, as predicted in the Cathedral City Study. Although likely
to be conservative, the Palm Desert Study's estimate that a population increase of 3�%
(at build out) would generate an increase of I1% in general government costs is
reasonable and credible.
This report accurately summarizes our review of the fiscal impact analyses prepared for
both Palm Desert and Cathedral City. Please feel free to contact me should you have any
questions.
Sincerely,
� • � ,1 �.
�
��'�" _ ,
Nicole Sauviat Criste
Principal